Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 15.330807 17.845276 20.592095 23.808782 27.465378 31.485526 36.232590
2024-10-06 12.115386 15.742817 20.094352 25.665823 32.572936 40.815055 51.351169
2024-10-13 9.512147 13.608692 18.936856 26.294018 36.095240 48.597193 65.626115
2024-10-20 7.633240 11.894746 17.845235 26.615169 39.033735 55.781062 79.816536
2024-10-27 6.262526 10.542849 16.911725 26.853642 41.698427 62.696097 94.195847
2024-11-03 5.639885 10.146985 17.226322 28.824527 46.921884 73.542827 114.941836
2024-11-10 4.993380 9.567701 17.127512 30.081571 51.128786 83.211868 134.751507
2024-11-17 4.424905 8.999377 16.929366 31.096581 54.987286 92.606963 154.841999
2024-11-24 3.748280 8.101068 16.020265 30.771408 56.581104 98.540568 169.972897
2024-12-01 3.084471 7.092280 14.748540 29.617795 56.601432 101.865774 181.107620
2024-12-08 2.570843 6.277370 13.698531 28.695746 56.865365 105.525545 192.954042
2024-12-15 2.260750 5.828113 13.277640 28.873003 59.067785 112.580025 210.919887
2024-12-22 1.952455 5.335543 12.724320 28.779934 60.868710 119.273545 229.138006
2024-12-29 1.823309 5.238609 12.988519 30.367932 66.039971 132.424770 259.738578
2025-01-05 1.624337 4.927734 12.738985 30.855734 69.106612 141.976803 284.592326
2025-01-12 1.437696 4.606275 12.412641 31.130342 71.759950 150.947845 309.006308
2025-01-19 1.274036 4.308398 12.091308 31.366636 74.341321 159.954956 334.081648
2025-01-26 1.237080 4.361824 12.628311 33.612783 81.356205 178.053639 377.517998
2025-02-02 1.159770 4.278840 12.810169 35.047205 86.745126 193.301622 416.404821
2025-02-09 1.076430 4.158220 12.875674 36.207199 91.628134 207.856793 454.818039
2025-02-16 0.940011 3.833095 12.344342 35.833804 93.029029 215.387814 479.779443
2025-02-23 0.788724 3.415392 11.484236 34.511908 92.109683 218.001620 494.981606
2025-03-02 0.668326 3.070319 10.766669 33.454982 91.687006 221.598942 512.368954